What is sequence-of-returns risk?
Withdrawals made during early market declines sell more of the portfolio when values are depressed, leaving fewer assets to participate in a recovery.
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How Long Will My Retirement Money Last?
Stress-test retirement withdrawals against inflation, guaranteed income, and poor returns early in retirement.
Timing convention: each year applies the full annual return first, then subtracts one annual net withdrawal at year-end; this can be more favorable than monthly withdrawals. Deterministic educational projection, not a probability forecast. It models one smooth baseline and one entered five-year return shock. Taxes, fees, irregular spending, sequence variation inside each year, account order, and future law changes are excluded.
MODELED RESULT—
HOW TO USE THE RESULT
Retirement success is an income problem—not only a balance
The model starts with spending, subtracts reliable income, increases the remaining need with inflation, and withdraws from the portfolio while applying the selected return path. Poor returns early in retirement can be more damaging than the same average returns arriving later.
Should Social Security and pensions be included?
Yes. Enter reliable income separately so the portfolio is responsible only for the remaining spending gap. Apply taxes consistently when comparing income and expenses.
Is one successful projection enough?
No. Test longer life, higher inflation, lower returns, larger healthcare costs, and an early downturn. A durable plan needs margin across several plausible paths.
OPTIONAL NEXT TESTS