LEVEL 500 · TOP OF CLIMB

How Long Will My Retirement Money Last?

Stress-test retirement withdrawals against inflation, guaranteed income, and poor returns early in retirement.

Compare a steady-return baseline with an early-return shock, then save the reviewed plan. Enter 0 for amounts that do not apply.

1 · Starting point

Age withdrawals beginUse your current age if already retired; otherwise enter your planned retirement age.Investments when withdrawals beginEnter the portfolio at the withdrawal starting age, not today’s balance if retirement is later.First-year retirement spendingFirst-year Social Security and pensionsEnter the annual total; use a consistent tax basis for income and spending.

2 · Annual assumptions

Expected annual returnAnnual inflationAnnual income increase (COLA)Applied to the entered Social Security and pension total each year.

3 · Early-return stress test

Return reduction for the first five yearsEnter percentage points: an 8-point reduction changes a 6% assumed return to −2%. This is a separate stress scenario.

Timing convention: each year applies the full annual return first, then subtracts one annual net withdrawal at year-end; this can be more favorable than monthly withdrawals. Deterministic educational projection, not a probability forecast. It models one smooth baseline and one entered five-year return shock. Taxes, fees, irregular spending, sequence variation inside each year, account order, and future law changes are excluded.

READY WHEN YOU ARE—

Compare a steady-return baseline with an early-return shock, then save the reviewed plan. Enter 0 for amounts that do not apply.

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HOW TO USE THE RESULT

Retirement success is an income problem—not only a balance

The model starts with spending, subtracts reliable income, increases the remaining need with inflation, and withdraws from the portfolio while applying the selected return path. Poor returns early in retirement can be more damaging than the same average returns arriving later.

What is sequence-of-returns risk?

Withdrawals made during early market declines sell more of the portfolio when values are depressed, leaving fewer assets to participate in a recovery.

Should Social Security and pensions be included?

Yes. Enter reliable income separately so the portfolio is responsible only for the remaining spending gap. Apply taxes consistently when comparing income and expenses.

Is one successful projection enough?

No. Test longer life, higher inflation, lower returns, larger healthcare costs, and an early downturn. A durable plan needs margin across several plausible paths.

OPTIONAL NEXT TESTS

Pressure-test the assumptions before acting on this result.

Test claiming timing

See how Social Security timing changes the portfolio burden.

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Inspect tax diversification

Create withdrawal options across different tax treatments.

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